CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State12.4 pt gap
Model vs mktNorth Dakota State -20.4 · mkt North Dakota State ~-8.0
LeanNorth Dakota State -8.0
Best priceNorth Dakota State -7.5 -110best of 7
WinNorth Dakota State 92%
Northern Illinois @ Iowa9.5 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -40.0 · mkt Iowa ~-30.5
LeanIowa -30.5
Best priceIowa -30.5 -105best of 7
WinIowa 100%
Central Michigan @ New Mexico4.6 pt gap
Model vs mktNew Mexico -7.4 · mkt New Mexico ~-12.0
LeanCentral Michigan +12.0
Best priceCentral Michigan +12.5 -112best of 5
WinNew Mexico 70%
Hawai'i @ Stanford2.4 pt gap
Model vs mktStanford -1.1 · mkt Stanford ~-3.5
LeanHawai'i +3.5
Best priceHawai'i +3.5 -112best of 7
WinStanford 53%
UTEP @ Oklahoma2.3 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -37.7 · mkt Oklahoma ~-40.0
LeanUTEP +40.0
Best priceUTEP +40.5 -108best of 7
WinOklahoma 100%
Western Kentucky @ Nevada1.8 pt gap
Model vs mktWestern Kentucky -4.8 · mkt Western Kentucky ~-3.0
LeanWestern Kentucky -3.0
Best priceWestern Kentucky -2.5 -122best of 6
WinWestern Kentucky 63%
Memphis @ UNLV1.4 pt gap
Model vs mktUNLV -1.9 · mkt UNLV ~-3.3
LeanMemphis +3.3
Best priceMemphis +3.5 -105best of 7
WinUNLV 55%
San José State @ USC0.9 pt gap
Model vs mktUSC -34.6 · mkt USC ~-35.5
LeanSan José State +35.5
Best priceSan José State +35.5 -108best of 7
WinUSC 99%
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 1 · 11 games
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 92%
Model
North Dakota State -20.4 · mkt North Dakota State ~-8.0
proj Jacksonville State 18.4 · North Dakota State 38.8
leans North Dakota State -8.0
◆ Mid 1
North Dakota State -7.5 -110FanDuel
Jacksonville State +8.5 -108DraftKings
Northern Illinois @ IowaIowa 100%
Model
Iowa -40.0 · mkt Iowa ~-30.5
proj Northern Illinois 6.9 · Iowa 46.9
leans Iowa -30.5
◆ Mid 0
Iowa -30.5 -105DraftKings
Northern Illinois +30.5 -115DraftKings
Central Michigan @ New MexicoNew Mexico 70%
Model
New Mexico -7.4 · mkt New Mexico ~-12.0
proj Central Michigan 25.3 · New Mexico 32.7
leans Central Michigan +12.0
◆ Mid 1
New Mexico -11.5 -112FanDuel
Central Michigan +12.5 -112DraftKings
Hawai'i @ StanfordStanford 53%
Model
Stanford -1.1 · mkt Stanford ~-3.5
proj Hawai'i 26.7 · Stanford 27.8
leans Hawai'i +3.5
◆ Mid 0
Stanford -3.5 -108DraftKings
Hawai'i +3.5 -112DraftKings
UTEP @ OklahomaOklahoma 100%
Model
Oklahoma -37.7 · mkt Oklahoma ~-40.0
proj UTEP 8.9 · Oklahoma 46.6
leans UTEP +40.0
◆ Mid 1
Oklahoma -39.5 -115FanDuel
UTEP +40.5 -108DraftKings
Western Kentucky @ NevadaWestern Kentucky 63%
Model
Western Kentucky -4.8 · mkt Western Kentucky ~-3.0
proj Western Kentucky 29.9 · Nevada 25.1
leans Western Kentucky -3.0
◆ Mid 1
Nevada +3.5 -111LowVig
Western Kentucky -2.5 -122FanDuel
Memphis @ UNLVUNLV 55%
Model
UNLV -1.9 · mkt UNLV ~-3.3
proj Memphis 25.8 · UNLV 27.7
leans Memphis +3.3
◆ Mid 0.5
UNLV -3 -118DraftKings
Memphis +3.5 -105FanDuel
San José State @ USCUSC 99%
Model
USC -34.6 · mkt USC ~-35.5
proj San José State 8.7 · USC 43.3
leans San José State +35.5
◆ Mid 0
USC -35.5 -112DraftKings
San José State +35.5 -108DraftKings
San José State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 63%
Model
Eastern Michigan -4.7 · mkt Eastern Michigan ~-4.0
proj San José State 24.3 · Eastern Michigan 29.0
leans Eastern Michigan -4.0
◆ Mid 1
Eastern Michigan -3.5 -108DraftKings
San José State +4.5 -106LowVig
Wyoming @ Colorado StateColorado State 59%
Model
Colorado State -3.3 · mkt Colorado State ~-3.8
proj Wyoming 24.5 · Colorado State 27.8
leans Wyoming +3.8
◆ Mid 0.5
Colorado State -3.5 -115FanDuel
Wyoming +4 -115DraftKings
UNLV @ Hawai'iUNLV 55%
Model
UNLV -1.7 · mkt UNLV ~-1.7
proj UNLV 29.6 · Hawai'i 28.0
◆ Mid 1.5
Hawai'i +2.5 -110FanDuel
UNLV -1 -101LowVig
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.