CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 9 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · Mountain West · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–0100%
ATS vs close
2–1 · 1P67%
Model margin MAE
16.2
Market margin MAE
14.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Utah State @ New MexicoFinal 14–33
Model
pred New Mexico 4.8 · actual New Mexico 19
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Colorado State @ WyomingFinal 0–28
Model
pred Wyoming 3.0 · actual Wyoming 28
winner Wyoming ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.0 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ Fresno StateFinal 23–0
Model
pred San Diego State 8.9 · actual San Diego State 23
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 20.0 · closer
Boise State @ NevadaFinal 24–3
Model
pred Boise State 9.4 · actual Boise State 21
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +21.0Push
margin err: model 11.6 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.