CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 8 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Mountain West · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–0100%
ATS vs close
3–260%
Model margin MAE
8.0
Market margin MAE
8.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Wyoming @ Air ForceFinal 21–24
Model
pred Air Force 6.3 · actual Air Force 3
winner Air Force ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Nevada @ New MexicoFinal 22–24
Model
pred New Mexico 5.9 · actual New Mexico 2
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 12.0 · closer
UNLV @ Boise StateFinal 31–56
Model
pred Boise State 4.5 · actual Boise State 25
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.5 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
San José State @ Utah StateFinal 25–30
Model
pred Utah State 3.1 · actual Utah State 5
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Hawai'i @ Colorado StateFinal 31–19
Model
pred Hawai'i 1.7 · actual Hawai'i 12
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 14.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.