CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 6 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
4–267%
Model margin MAE
8.8
Market margin MAE
8.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Air Force @ NavyFinal 31–34
Model
pred Navy 15.8 · actual Navy 3
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Nevada @ Fresno StateFinal 17–20
Model
pred Fresno State 10.8 · actual Fresno State 3
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.8 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Colorado State @ San Diego StateFinal 24–45
Model
pred San Diego State 10.7 · actual San Diego State 21
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Boise State @ Notre DameFinal 7–28
Model
pred Notre Dame 9.6 · actual Notre Dame 21
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boise State +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ San José StateFinal 28–35
Model
pred New Mexico 1.8 · actual San José State 7
winner New Mexico ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
UNLV @ WyomingFinal 31–17
Model
pred UNLV 12.4 · actual UNLV 14
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 9.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.