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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 5 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Mountain West · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
2–529%
Model margin MAE
13.8
Market margin MAE
8.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Utah State @ VanderbiltFinal 35–55
Model
pred Vanderbilt 28.2 · actual Vanderbilt 20
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Washington State @ Colorado StateFinal 20–3
Model
pred Colorado State 9.9 · actual Washington State 17
winner Colorado State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ New MexicoFinal 20–38
Model
pred New Mexico 9.2 · actual New Mexico 18
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
App State @ Boise StateFinal 14–47
Model
pred Boise State 8.1 · actual Boise State 33
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.9 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
San José State @ StanfordFinal 29–30
Model
pred Stanford 5.2 · actual Stanford 1
winner Stanford ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ Air ForceFinal 44–35
Model
pred Air Force 4.0 · actual Hawai'i 9
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 16.0 · closer
San Diego State @ Northern IllinoisFinal 6–3
Model
pred San Diego State 13.5 · actual San Diego State 3
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.