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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 4 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · Mountain West · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
12.0
Market margin MAE
9.6
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Wyoming @ ColoradoFinal 20–37
Model
pred Colorado 13.7 · actual Colorado 17
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Nevada @ Western KentuckyFinal 16–31
Model
pred Western Kentucky 5.0 · actual Western Kentucky 15
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Air ForceFinal 49–37
Model
pred Air Force 3.6 · actual Boise State 12
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.6 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ Hawai'iFinal 23–21
Model
pred Fresno State 2.5 · actual Fresno State 2
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 0.5 · tie
UNLV @ Miami (OH)Final 41–38
Model
pred UNLV 3.8 · actual UNLV 3
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 1.5 · closer
UTSA @ Colorado StateFinal 17–16
Model
pred UTSA 4.0 · actual UTSA 1
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
California @ San Diego StateFinal 0–34
Model
pred California 16.7 · actual San Diego State 34
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 50.7 · mkt 48.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.