CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 3 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Mountain West · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–250%
ATS vs close
2–250%
Model margin MAE
18.0
Market margin MAE
18.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
New Mexico @ UCLAFinal 35–10
Model
pred UCLA 14.8 · actual New Mexico 25
winner UCLA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 39.8 · mkt 40.5 · closer
Middle Tennessee @ NevadaFinal 14–13
Model
pred Nevada 9.9 · actual Middle Tennessee 1
winner Nevada ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ Utah StateFinal 30–49
Model
pred Utah State 6.0 · actual Utah State 19
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 23.0 · closer
Utah @ WyomingFinal 31–6
Model
pred Utah 16.5 · actual Utah 25
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.