CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 2 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS IndependentsBig Sky
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 2 backtest · Mountain West · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–186%
ATS vs close
5–271%
Model margin MAE
11.0
Market margin MAE
10.6
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Utah State @ Texas A&MFinal 22–44
Model
pred Texas A&M 22.2 · actual Texas A&M 22
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +34.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.2 · mkt 12.5 · closer
San José State @ TexasFinal 7–38
Model
pred Texas 22.1 · actual Texas 31
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +36.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
Sacramento State @ NevadaFinal 17–20
Model
pred Nevada 20.9 · actual Nevada 3
winner Nevada ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada -8.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.9 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
UCLA @ UNLVFinal 23–30
Model
pred UNLV 17.3 · actual UNLV 7
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ Washington StateFinal 13–36
Model
pred Washington State 8.4 · actual Washington State 23
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State -2.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 20.7 · closer
Sam Houston @ Hawai'iFinal 20–37
Model
pred Sam Houston 1.3 · actual Hawai'i 17
winner Sam Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +7.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 9.7 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ Oregon StateFinal 36–27
Model
pred Fresno State 2.5 · actual Fresno State 9
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +1.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 10.3 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.