CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 15 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
Week 15 backtest · Mountain West · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
11.6
Market margin MAE
11.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UNLV @ Boise StateFinal 21–38
Model
pred Boise State 5.4 · actual Boise State 17
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.6 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.