CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 14 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
0–50%
Model margin MAE
16.7
Market margin MAE
13.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Air Force @ Colorado StateFinal 42–21
Model
pred Colorado State 6.9 · actual Air Force 21
winner Colorado State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.9 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ Hawai'iFinal 7–27
Model
pred Hawai'i 6.8 · actual Hawai'i 20
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.2 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ San José StateFinal 41–14
Model
pred San José State 0.5 · actual Fresno State 27
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.5 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ New MexicoFinal 17–23
Model
pred San Diego State 2.2 · actual New Mexico 6
winner San Diego State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Utah StateFinal 25–24
Model
pred Boise State 6.8 · actual Boise State 1
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boise State -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
UNLV @ NevadaFinal 42–17
Model
pred UNLV 7.5 · actual UNLV 25
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 17.5 · mkt 17.5 · tie
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.