CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 13 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
15.5
Market margin MAE
14.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Colorado State @ Boise StateFinal 21–49
Model
pred Boise State 13.2 · actual Boise State 28
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
San José State @ San Diego StateFinal 3–25
Model
pred San Diego State 11.8 · actual San Diego State 22
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Hawai'i @ UNLVFinal 10–38
Model
pred UNLV 9.5 · actual UNLV 28
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Nevada @ WyomingFinal 13–7
Model
pred Wyoming 6.7 · actual Nevada 6
winner Wyoming ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ Air ForceFinal 20–3
Model
pred Air Force 6.2 · actual New Mexico 17
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.2 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Utah State @ Fresno StateFinal 28–17
Model
pred Fresno State 2.7 · actual Utah State 11
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.