CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 12 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
5–183%
Model margin MAE
13.9
Market margin MAE
16.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Utah State @ UNLVFinal 26–29
Model
pred UNLV 14.1 · actual UNLV 3
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ UConnFinal 16–26
Model
pred UConn 13.2 · actual UConn 10
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ Fresno StateFinal 3–24
Model
pred Fresno State 5.8 · actual Fresno State 21
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.2 · mkt 18.0 · closer
Boise State @ San Diego StateFinal 7–17
Model
pred San Diego State 5.6 · actual San Diego State 10
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Colorado State @ New MexicoFinal 17–20
Model
pred New Mexico 3.0 · actual New Mexico 3
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.0 · mkt 12.5 · closer
San José State @ NevadaFinal 10–55
Model
pred San José State 4.5 · actual Nevada 45
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 49.5 · mkt 54.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.