CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 11 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Mountain West · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–250%
ATS vs close
2–250%
Model margin MAE
26.9
Market margin MAE
27.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Nevada @ Utah StateFinal 14–51
Model
pred Utah State 6.1 · actual Utah State 37
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.9 · mkt 27.0 · mkt closer
Air Force @ San José StateFinal 26–16
Model
pred San José State 5.4 · actual Air Force 10
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 16.0 · closer
San Diego State @ Hawai'iFinal 6–38
Model
pred San Diego State 2.5 · actual Hawai'i 32
winner San Diego State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 34.5 · mkt 38.5 · closer
UNLV @ Colorado StateFinal 42–10
Model
pred UNLV 5.1 · actual UNLV 32
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 26.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.