CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 10 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · Mountain West · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–340%
ATS vs close
3–260%
Model margin MAE
14.3
Market margin MAE
12.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Fresno State @ Boise StateFinal 30–7
Model
pred Boise State 14.5 · actual Fresno State 23
winner Boise State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 37.5 · mkt 40.5 · closer
New Mexico @ UNLVFinal 40–35
Model
pred UNLV 13.0 · actual New Mexico 5
winner UNLV ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.0 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ San Diego StateFinal 7–24
Model
pred San Diego State 11.3 · actual San Diego State 17
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Hawai'i @ San José StateFinal 38–45
Model
pred Hawai'i 0.9 · actual San José State 7
winner Hawai'i ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Army @ Air ForceFinal 20–17
Model
pred Army 5.3 · actual Army 3
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.