CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 1 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · Mountain West · 12 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–375%
ATS vs close
8–467%
Model margin MAE
12.8
Market margin MAE
13.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Nevada @ Penn StateFinal 11–46
Model
pred Penn State 31.6 · actual Penn State 35
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +43.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 8.5 · closer
New Mexico @ MichiganFinal 17–34
Model
pred Michigan 31.0 · actual Michigan 17
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +34.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 17.5 · closer
Fresno State @ KansasFinal 7–31
Model
pred Kansas 15.2 · actual Kansas 24
winner Kansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Colorado State @ WashingtonFinal 21–38
Model
pred Washington 15.0 · actual Washington 17
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +22.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ San José StateFinal 16–14
Model
pred San José State 13.0 · actual Central Michigan 2
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Hawai'i @ ArizonaFinal 6–40
Model
pred Arizona 9.6 · actual Arizona 34
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.4 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ Utah StateFinal 16–28
Model
pred Utah State 5.9 · actual Utah State 12
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Stanford @ Hawai'iFinal 20–23
Model
pred Hawai'i 1.3 · actual Hawai'i 3
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ AkronFinal 10–0
Model
pred Wyoming 1.7 · actual Wyoming 10
winner Wyoming ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Boise State @ South FloridaFinal 7–34
Model
pred Boise State 2.6 · actual South Florida 27
winner Boise State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.6 · mkt 32.5 · closer
Georgia Southern @ Fresno StateFinal 14–42
Model
pred Georgia Southern 4.7 · actual Fresno State 28
winner Georgia Southern ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.7 · mkt 26.0 · mkt closer
UNLV @ Sam HoustonFinal 38–21
Model
pred UNLV 9.7 · actual UNLV 17
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 8.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.