CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 9 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
3–2 · 1P60%
Model margin MAE
9.9
Market margin MAE
9.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Utah State @ WyomingFinal 27–25
Model
pred Wyoming 8.7 · actual Utah State 2
winner Wyoming ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +2.0Push
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
San José State @ Fresno StateFinal 10–33
Model
pred Fresno State 4.4 · actual Fresno State 23
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.6 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Nevada @ Hawai'iFinal 13–34
Model
pred Hawai'i 4.0 · actual Hawai'i 21
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.0 · mkt 18.5 · closer
New Mexico @ Colorado StateFinal 6–17
Model
pred Colorado State 3.8 · actual Colorado State 11
winner Colorado State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Boise State @ UNLVFinal 29–24
Model
pred Boise State 3.3 · actual Boise State 5
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Washington State @ San Diego StateFinal 29–26
Model
pred Washington State 7.0 · actual Washington State 3
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +17.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 14.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.