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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 7 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Mountain West · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–357%
ATS vs close
2–4 · 1P33%
Model margin MAE
10.6
Market margin MAE
4.6
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Washington State @ Fresno StateFinal 25–17
Model
pred Fresno State 6.1 · actual Washington State 8
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ New MexicoFinal 37–52
Model
pred New Mexico 2.1 · actual New Mexico 15
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ WyomingFinal 27–24
Model
pred San Diego State 3.4 · actual San Diego State 3
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 4.5 · closer
San José State @ Colorado StateFinal 24–31
Model
pred San José State 9.6 · actual Colorado State 7
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
UNLV @ Utah StateFinal 50–34
Model
pred UNLV 10.5 · actual UNLV 16
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ NevadaFinal 37–42
Model
pred Oregon State 17.0 · actual Nevada 5
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Hawai'iFinal 28–7
Model
pred Boise State 18.0 · actual Boise State 21
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +21.0Push
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.