CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 6 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
1–517%
Model margin MAE
10.8
Market margin MAE
6.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Utah State @ Boise StateFinal 30–62
Model
pred Boise State 23.6 · actual Boise State 32
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +28.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Colorado State @ Oregon StateFinal 31–39
Model
pred Oregon State 18.4 · actual Oregon State 8
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Nevada @ San José StateFinal 31–35
Model
pred San José State 13.4 · actual San José State 4
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.4 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ UNLVFinal 44–41
Model
pred UNLV 9.8 · actual Syracuse 3
winner UNLV ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ San Diego StateFinal 24–27
Model
pred San Diego State 3.7 · actual San Diego State 3
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Navy @ Air ForceFinal 34–7
Model
pred Navy 4.2 · actual Navy 27
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.8 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.