CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 5 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Mountain West · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–340%
ATS vs close
0–40%
Model margin MAE
20.0
Market margin MAE
15.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
New Mexico @ New Mexico StateFinal 50–40
Model
pred New Mexico State 2.9 · actual New Mexico 10
winner New Mexico State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ Central MichiganFinal 21–22
Model
pred Central Michigan 2.5 · actual Central Michigan 1
winner Central Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 1.5 · tie
Washington State @ Boise StateFinal 24–45
Model
pred Boise State 0.8 · actual Boise State 21
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.2 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ UNLVFinal 14–59
Model
pred Fresno State 1.7 · actual UNLV 45
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 46.7 · mkt 42.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ WyomingFinal 19–31
Model
pred Air Force 6.9 · actual Wyoming 12
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.9 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.