CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 4 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 4 backtest · Mountain West · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–0100%
ATS vs close
3–260%
Model margin MAE
9.8
Market margin MAE
12.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Wyoming @ North TexasFinal 17–44
Model
pred North Texas 6.1 · actual North Texas 27
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
UTEP @ Colorado StateFinal 17–27
Model
pred Colorado State 1.4 · actual Colorado State 10
winner Colorado State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Utah State @ TempleFinal 29–45
Model
pred Temple 1.4 · actual Temple 16
winner Temple ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 22.5 · closer
San José State @ Washington StateFinal 52–54
Model
pred Washington State 1.0 · actual Washington State 2
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Fresno State @ New MexicoFinal 38–21
Model
pred Fresno State 21.1 · actual Fresno State 17
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -12.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 5.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.