CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 3 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Mountain West · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
10–191%
ATS vs close
6–555%
Model margin MAE
10.7
Market margin MAE
9.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
New Mexico @ AuburnFinal 19–45
Model
pred Auburn 26.9 · actual Auburn 26
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn -25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ San José StateFinal 10–31
Model
pred San José State 26.2 · actual San José State 21
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -17.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ CaliforniaFinal 10–31
Model
pred California 21.5 · actual California 21
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California -18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 2.5 · closer
New Mexico State @ Fresno StateFinal 0–48
Model
pred Fresno State 10.8 · actual Fresno State 48
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +20.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.2 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
Nevada @ MinnesotaFinal 0–27
Model
pred Minnesota 10.7 · actual Minnesota 27
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Air Force @ BaylorFinal 3–31
Model
pred Baylor 7.7 · actual Baylor 28
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.3 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
UNLV @ KansasFinal 23–20
Model
pred Kansas 4.5 · actual UNLV 3
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Hawai'i @ Sam HoustonFinal 13–31
Model
pred Sam Houston 0.2 · actual Sam Houston 18
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Colorado @ Colorado StateFinal 28–9
Model
pred Colorado 14.2 · actual Colorado 19
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 11.5 · closer
BYU @ WyomingFinal 34–14
Model
pred BYU 19.0 · actual BYU 20
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Utah @ Utah StateFinal 38–21
Model
pred Utah 23.7 · actual Utah 17
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah -20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.