CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 2 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
12.4
Market margin MAE
11.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Utah State @ USCFinal 0–48
Model
pred USC 26.2 · actual USC 48
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +29.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.8 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ OregonFinal 34–37
Model
pred Oregon 21.8 · actual Oregon 3
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
San José State @ Air ForceFinal 17–7
Model
pred Air Force 10.9 · actual San José State 10
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
Sacramento State @ Fresno StateFinal 30–46
Model
pred Fresno State 8.5 · actual Fresno State 16
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sacramento State +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Southern @ NevadaFinal 20–17
Model
pred Georgia Southern 3.0 · actual Georgia Southern 3
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Oregon State @ San Diego StateFinal 21–0
Model
pred Oregon State 15.8 · actual Oregon State 21
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 15.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.