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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 15 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 15 backtest · Mountain West · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
1–0100%
Model margin MAE
5.2
Market margin MAE
10.0
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UNLV @ Boise StateFinal 7–21
Model
pred Boise State 8.8 · actual Boise State 14
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boise State -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 10.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.