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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 14 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Mountain West · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–188%
ATS vs close
5–363%
Model margin MAE
6.8
Market margin MAE
6.1
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Wyoming @ Washington StateFinal 15–14
Model
pred Washington State 14.7 · actual Wyoming 1
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.7 · mkt 19.5 · closer
Oregon State @ Boise StateFinal 18–34
Model
pred Boise State 13.7 · actual Boise State 16
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Nevada @ UNLVFinal 14–38
Model
pred UNLV 10.0 · actual UNLV 24
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Utah State @ Colorado StateFinal 37–42
Model
pred Colorado State 6.8 · actual Colorado State 5
winner Colorado State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ San José StateFinal 31–34
Model
pred San José State 4.3 · actual San José State 3
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ Hawai'iFinal 30–38
Model
pred Hawai'i 4.0 · actual Hawai'i 8
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Fresno State @ UCLAFinal 13–20
Model
pred UCLA 2.3 · actual UCLA 7
winner UCLA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ San Diego StateFinal 31–20
Model
pred Air Force 0.8 · actual Air Force 11
winner Air Force ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.