CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 13 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 13 backtest · Mountain West · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–0100%
ATS vs close
3–260%
Model margin MAE
9.1
Market margin MAE
9.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Colorado State @ Fresno StateFinal 22–28
Model
pred Fresno State 10.2 · actual Fresno State 6
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ Utah StateFinal 20–41
Model
pred Utah State 3.7 · actual Utah State 21
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.3 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
UNLV @ San José StateFinal 27–16
Model
pred UNLV 0.9 · actual UNLV 11
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ NevadaFinal 22–19
Model
pred Air Force 1.9 · actual Air Force 3
winner Air Force ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Boise State @ WyomingFinal 17–13
Model
pred Boise State 16.8 · actual Boise State 4
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 18.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.