CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 12 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
1–517%
Model margin MAE
20.5
Market margin MAE
17.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
San Diego State @ UNLVFinal 20–41
Model
pred UNLV 12.5 · actual UNLV 21
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ Colorado StateFinal 10–24
Model
pred Colorado State 8.4 · actual Colorado State 14
winner Colorado State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ Utah StateFinal 10–55
Model
pred Hawai'i 2.8 · actual Utah State 45
winner Hawai'i ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 47.8 · mkt 47.5 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ Air ForceFinal 0–28
Model
pred Oregon State 4.1 · actual Air Force 28
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.1 · mkt 30.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ San José StateFinal 42–21
Model
pred Boise State 7.0 · actual Boise State 21
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Washington State @ New MexicoFinal 35–38
Model
pred Washington State 11.8 · actual New Mexico 3
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.