CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 11 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
10.8
Market margin MAE
10.9
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Nevada @ Boise StateFinal 21–28
Model
pred Boise State 25.8 · actual Boise State 7
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boise State -23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Utah State @ Washington StateFinal 28–49
Model
pred Washington State 18.0 · actual Washington State 21
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ San Diego StateFinal 21–16
Model
pred San Diego State 6.5 · actual New Mexico 5
winner San Diego State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.5 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
San José State @ Oregon StateFinal 24–13
Model
pred Oregon State 4.1 · actual San José State 11
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ Air ForceFinal 28–36
Model
pred Fresno State 2.6 · actual Air Force 8
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 17.5 · closer
UNLV @ Hawai'iFinal 29–27
Model
pred UNLV 7.7 · actual UNLV 2
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 10.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.