CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 1 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCAmerican AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS IndependentsBig SkyMVFC
Week 1 backtest · Mountain West · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–280%
ATS vs close
5–550%
Model margin MAE
14.3
Market margin MAE
14.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Colorado State @ TexasFinal 0–52
Model
pred Texas 38.4 · actual Texas 52
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -35.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.6 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Fresno State @ MichiganFinal 10–30
Model
pred Michigan 30.2 · actual Michigan 20
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ ArizonaFinal 39–61
Model
pred Arizona 27.7 · actual Arizona 22
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +29.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Sacramento State @ San José StateFinal 24–42
Model
pred San José State 16.6 · actual San José State 18
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Nevada @ TroyFinal 28–26
Model
pred Troy 15.2 · actual Nevada 2
winner Troy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
UNLV @ HoustonFinal 27–7
Model
pred Houston 5.7 · actual UNLV 20
winner Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -2.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.7 · mkt 22.3 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ Arizona StateFinal 7–48
Model
pred Arizona State 3.7 · actual Arizona State 41
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.3 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Georgia SouthernFinal 56–45
Model
pred Boise State 8.6 · actual Boise State 11
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
UCLA @ Hawai'iFinal 16–13
Model
pred UCLA 16.3 · actual UCLA 3
winner UCLA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
SMU @ NevadaFinal 29–24
Model
pred SMU 20.9 · actual SMU 5
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.9 · mkt 22.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.