CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 9 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

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Season2026 2025 2024

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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 9 · 2 games

Kent State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 86%

Model

Sacramento State -15.5 · mkt Sacramento State —

proj Kent State 20.9 · Sacramento State 36.4

Total

proj 57.2

Bowling Green @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 81%

Model

Western Michigan -12.7 · mkt Western Michigan —

proj Bowling Green 19.8 · Western Michigan 32.5

Total

proj 52.3

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.