CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 8 · 7 games
Massachusetts @ UConnUConn 96%
Model
UConn -24.3 · mkt UConn —
proj Massachusetts 14.3 · UConn 38.6
Total
proj 52.8
Eastern Michigan @ OhioOhio 78%
Model
Ohio -11.1 · mkt Ohio —
proj Eastern Michigan 22.6 · Ohio 33.7
Total
proj 56.3
Sacramento State @ Ball StateBall State 75%
Model
Ball State -9.7 · mkt Ball State —
proj Sacramento State 22.3 · Ball State 32.1
Total
proj 54.4
Bowling Green @ BuffaloBuffalo 66%
Model
Buffalo -5.9 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Bowling Green 25.3 · Buffalo 31.3
Total
proj 56.6
Western Michigan @ ToledoToledo 65%
Model
Toledo -5.6 · mkt Toledo —
proj Western Michigan 23.1 · Toledo 28.7
Total
proj 51.8
Akron @ Kent StateKent State 51%
Model
Kent State -0.4 · mkt Kent State —
proj Akron 26.5 · Kent State 26.9
Total
proj 53.3
Miami (OH) @ Central MichiganMiami (OH) 51%
Model
Miami (OH) -0.4 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 28.1 · Central Michigan 27.7
Total
proj 55.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.