CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 7 · 7 games
Kent State @ South FloridaSouth Florida 98%
Model
South Florida -30.8 · mkt South Florida —
proj Kent State 12.1 · South Florida 42.9
Total
proj 54.9
Massachusetts @ BuffaloBuffalo 85%
Model
Buffalo -14.8 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Massachusetts 21.1 · Buffalo 35.9
Total
proj 57.0
Akron @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 81%
Model
Miami (OH) -12.3 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Akron 19.1 · Miami (OH) 31.4
Total
proj 50.6
Ball State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 77%
Model
Bowling Green -10.7 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Ball State 20.7 · Bowling Green 31.4
Total
proj 52.1
Ohio @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 72%
Model
Sacramento State -8.1 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Ohio 22.7 · Sacramento State 30.9
Total
proj 53.6
Western Michigan @ Central MichiganWestern Michigan 52%
Model
Western Michigan -0.6 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 28.6 · Central Michigan 28.0
Total
proj 56.7
Toledo @ Eastern MichiganToledo 76%
Model
Toledo -10.1 · mkt Toledo —
proj Toledo 32.7 · Eastern Michigan 22.6
Total
proj 55.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.