CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 6 · 7 games
Ball State @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 95%
Model
Northwestern -23.3 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Ball State 14.9 · Northwestern 38.2
Total
proj 53.1
Kent State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 92%
Model
Western Michigan -19.8 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Kent State 16.6 · Western Michigan 36.4
Total
proj 53.1
Buffalo @ ToledoToledo 87%
Model
Toledo -16.1 · mkt Toledo —
proj Buffalo 18.9 · Toledo 34.9
Total
proj 53.8
Sacramento State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 86%
Model
Bowling Green -15.5 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Sacramento State 20.9 · Bowling Green 36.4
Total
proj 57.2
Central Michigan @ OhioOhio 74%
Model
Ohio -9.2 · mkt Ohio —
proj Central Michigan 25.7 · Ohio 34.9
Total
proj 60.5
Eastern Michigan @ AkronAkron 63%
Model
Akron -4.6 · mkt Akron —
proj Eastern Michigan 25.9 · Akron 30.5
Total
proj 56.4
Miami (OH) @ MassachusettsMiami (OH) 94%
Model
Miami (OH) -22.6 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 40.1 · Massachusetts 17.5
Total
proj 57.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.