CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 4 · 8 games
Central Michigan @ MiamiMiami 100%
Model
Miami -38.7 · mkt Miami —
proj Central Michigan 7.9 · Miami 46.6
Total
proj 54.4
Massachusetts @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 94%
Model
Sacramento State -21.9 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Massachusetts 17.4 · Sacramento State 39.3
Total
proj 56.7
San Diego State @ ToledoToledo 65%
Model
Toledo -5.5 · mkt Toledo —
proj San Diego State 23.5 · Toledo 29.0
Total
proj 52.5
Boise State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 60%
Model
Western Michigan -3.7 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Boise State 21.9 · Western Michigan 25.6
Total
proj 47.5
Ball State @ Kent StateKent State 60%
Model
Kent State -3.6 · mkt Kent State —
proj Ball State 26.9 · Kent State 30.5
Total
proj 57.4
UConn @ Miami (OH)UConn 66%
Model
UConn -5.7 · mkt UConn —
proj UConn 29.6 · Miami (OH) 23.9
Total
proj 53.4
South Florida @ Bowling GreenSouth Florida 90%
Model
South Florida -18.0 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 37.5 · Bowling Green 19.5
Total
proj 56.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.