CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 3 · 12 games
Kent State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -48.0 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Kent State 9.3 · Ohio State 57.3
Total
proj 66.6
Buffalo @ Penn StatePenn State 99%
Model
Penn State -35.4 · mkt Penn State —
proj Buffalo 8.0 · Penn State 43.4
Total
proj 51.4
Akron @ MinnesotaMinnesota 96%
Model
Minnesota -24.4 · mkt Minnesota —
proj Akron 16.2 · Minnesota 40.6
Total
proj 56.8
Bowling Green @ Iowa StateIowa State 92%
Model
Iowa State -20.0 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Bowling Green 17.0 · Iowa State 37.0
Total
proj 54.1
Eastern Michigan @ WisconsinWisconsin 90%
Model
Wisconsin -18.6 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Eastern Michigan 14.4 · Wisconsin 33.0
Total
proj 47.3
Temple @ ToledoToledo 87%
Model
Toledo -16.3 · mkt Toledo —
proj Temple 22.0 · Toledo 38.3
Total
proj 60.4
Ball State @ LibertyLiberty 84%
Model
Liberty -14.1 · mkt Liberty —
proj Ball State 20.9 · Liberty 35.0
Total
proj 56.0
North Dakota State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 71%
Model
Sacramento State -7.9 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj North Dakota State 22.3 · Sacramento State 30.3
Total
proj 52.6
Miami (OH) @ CincinnatiCincinnati 66%
Model
Cincinnati -5.7 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Miami (OH) 23.6 · Cincinnati 29.4
Total
proj 53.0
Wyoming @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 64%
Model
Central Michigan -5.2 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Wyoming 25.6 · Central Michigan 30.8
Total
proj 56.3
Ohio @ South AlabamaOhio 56%
Model
Ohio -2.3 · mkt Ohio —
proj Ohio 28.9 · South Alabama 26.6
Total
proj 55.5
Western Michigan @ RiceWestern Michigan 71%
Model
Western Michigan -7.8 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 32.0 · Rice 24.2
Total
proj 56.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.