CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 2 · 5 games
Bowling Green @ NebraskaNebraska 95%
Model
Nebraska -23.8 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Bowling Green 12.9 · Nebraska 36.8
Total
proj 49.7
Sacramento State @ Fresno StateFresno State 94%
Model
Fresno State -21.9 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Sacramento State 17.5 · Fresno State 39.4
Total
proj 56.8
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan StateMichigan State 85%
Model
Michigan State -14.5 · mkt Michigan State —
proj Eastern Michigan 19.0 · Michigan State 33.4
Total
proj 52.4
Jacksonville State @ OhioOhio 67%
Model
Ohio -6.1 · mkt Ohio —
proj Jacksonville State 25.1 · Ohio 31.3
Total
proj 56.4
Buffalo @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 57%
Model
Florida International -2.5 · mkt Florida International —
proj Buffalo 24.5 · Florida International 26.9
Total
proj 51.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.