CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 13 · 7 games
Sacramento State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 94%
Model
Hawai'i -22.0 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Sacramento State 17.4 · Hawai'i 39.4
Total
proj 56.8
Massachusetts @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 92%
Model
Bowling Green -20.2 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Massachusetts 17.6 · Bowling Green 37.9
Total
proj 55.5
Kent State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 75%
Model
Eastern Michigan -9.6 · mkt Eastern Michigan —
proj Kent State 21.5 · Eastern Michigan 31.1
Total
proj 52.6
Miami (OH) @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 69%
Model
Western Michigan -7.0 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Miami (OH) 24.3 · Western Michigan 31.3
Total
proj 55.6
Buffalo @ AkronBuffalo 55%
Model
Buffalo -1.9 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Buffalo 28.7 · Akron 26.8
Total
proj 55.4
Central Michigan @ Ball StateCentral Michigan 61%
Model
Central Michigan -4.1 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Central Michigan 28.4 · Ball State 24.3
Total
proj 52.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.