CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 12 · 6 games
Bowling Green @ ToledoToledo 84%
Model
Toledo -14.3 · mkt Toledo —
proj Bowling Green 20.0 · Toledo 34.3
Total
proj 54.3
Eastern Michigan @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 83%
Model
Western Michigan -13.4 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Eastern Michigan 20.5 · Western Michigan 33.9
Total
proj 54.4
Central Michigan @ BuffaloBuffalo 58%
Model
Buffalo -2.7 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Central Michigan 27.2 · Buffalo 29.9
Total
proj 57.1
Akron @ MassachusettsAkron 79%
Model
Akron -11.2 · mkt Akron —
proj Akron 32.0 · Massachusetts 20.8
Total
proj 52.8
Miami (OH) @ Kent StateMiami (OH) 81%
Model
Miami (OH) -12.3 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 34.9 · Kent State 22.6
Total
proj 57.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.