CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 11 · 6 games
Massachusetts @ ToledoToledo 99%
Model
Toledo -34.6 · mkt Toledo —
proj Massachusetts 14.0 · Toledo 48.5
Total
proj 62.5
Sacramento State @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 87%
Model
Central Michigan -15.8 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Sacramento State 20.5 · Central Michigan 36.3
Total
proj 56.8
Kent State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 72%
Model
Bowling Green -8.3 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Kent State 21.6 · Bowling Green 29.8
Total
proj 51.4
Ohio @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 67%
Model
Miami (OH) -6.4 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Ohio 24.6 · Miami (OH) 31.0
Total
proj 55.6
Buffalo @ Ball StateBuffalo 59%
Model
Buffalo -3.1 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Buffalo 27.9 · Ball State 24.8
Total
proj 52.7
Western Michigan @ AkronWestern Michigan 65%
Model
Western Michigan -5.6 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 30.8 · Akron 25.3
Total
proj 56.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.