CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Ohio @ Nebraska13.2 pt gap
Model vs mktNebraska -10.3 · mkt Nebraska ~-23.5
LeanOhio +23.5
Best priceOhio +23.5 -112best of 7
WinNebraska 76%
Toledo @ Michigan State12.0 pt gap
Model vs mktToledo -1.0 · mkt Toledo ~+11.0
LeanToledo +11.0
Best priceToledo +11.5 -115best of 7
WinToledo 53%
Western Michigan @ Michigan6.9 pt gap
Model vs mktMichigan -19.1 · mkt Michigan ~-26.0
LeanWestern Michigan +26.0
Best priceWestern Michigan +26.5 -108best of 7
WinMichigan 91%
Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh6.5 pt gap
Model vs mktPittsburgh -9.5 · mkt Pittsburgh ~-16.0
LeanMiami (OH) +16.0
Best priceMiami (OH) +16.5 -106best of 6
WinPittsburgh 75%
Massachusetts @ Rutgers5.7 pt gap
Model vs mktRutgers -36.2 · mkt Rutgers ~-30.5
LeanRutgers -30.5
Best priceRutgers -30.5 -110best of 5
WinRutgers 99%
Akron @ Wake Forest4.7 pt gap
Model vs mktWake Forest -17.8 · mkt Wake Forest ~-22.5
LeanAkron +22.5
Best priceAkron +22.5 -112best of 6
WinWake Forest 89%
Central Michigan @ New Mexico4.6 pt gap
Model vs mktNew Mexico -7.4 · mkt New Mexico ~-12.0
LeanCentral Michigan +12.0
Best priceCentral Michigan +12.5 -112best of 5
WinNew Mexico 70%
Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan3.8 pt gap
Model vs mktEastern Michigan -11.8 · mkt Eastern Michigan ~-8.0
LeanEastern Michigan -8.0
Best priceEastern Michigan -7.5 -112best of 7
WinEastern Michigan 80%
Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 1 · 11 games
Ohio @ NebraskaNebraska 76%
Model
Nebraska -10.3 · mkt Nebraska ~-23.5
proj Ohio 22.2 · Nebraska 32.5
leans Ohio +23.5
◆ Mid 0
Nebraska -23.5 -108DraftKings
Ohio +23.5 -112DraftKings
Toledo @ Michigan StateToledo 53%
Model
Toledo -1.0 · mkt Toledo ~+11.0
proj Toledo 29.7 · Michigan State 28.7
leans Toledo +11.0
◆ Mid 1
Michigan State -10.5 -110DraftKings
Toledo +11.5 -115FanDuel
Western Michigan @ MichiganMichigan 91%
Model
Michigan -19.1 · mkt Michigan ~-26.0
proj Western Michigan 17.2 · Michigan 36.2
leans Western Michigan +26.0
◆ Mid 1
Michigan -25.5 -112FanDuel
Western Michigan +26.5 -108DraftKings
Miami (OH) @ PittsburghPittsburgh 75%
Model
Pittsburgh -9.5 · mkt Pittsburgh ~-16.0
proj Miami (OH) 22.2 · Pittsburgh 31.7
leans Miami (OH) +16.0
◆ Mid 1
Pittsburgh -15.5 -108DraftKings
Miami (OH) +16.5 -106LowVig
Massachusetts @ RutgersRutgers 99%
Model
Rutgers -36.2 · mkt Rutgers ~-30.5
proj Massachusetts 8.0 · Rutgers 44.1
leans Rutgers -30.5
◆ Mid 0
Rutgers -30.5 -110DraftKings
Massachusetts +30.5 -110DraftKings
Akron @ Wake ForestWake Forest 89%
Model
Wake Forest -17.8 · mkt Wake Forest ~-22.5
proj Akron 18.5 · Wake Forest 36.3
leans Akron +22.5
◆ Mid 0
Wake Forest -22.5 -108DraftKings
Akron +22.5 -112DraftKings
Central Michigan @ New MexicoNew Mexico 70%
Model
New Mexico -7.4 · mkt New Mexico ~-12.0
proj Central Michigan 25.3 · New Mexico 32.7
leans Central Michigan +12.0
◆ Mid 1
New Mexico -11.5 -112FanDuel
Central Michigan +12.5 -112DraftKings
Sacramento State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 80%
Model
Eastern Michigan -11.8 · mkt Eastern Michigan ~-8.0
proj Sacramento State 22.1 · Eastern Michigan 33.9
leans Eastern Michigan -8.0
◆ Mid 1
Eastern Michigan -7.5 -112DraftKings
Sacramento State +8.5 -110BetMGM
Ball State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -46.5 · mkt Ohio State ~-50.0
proj Ball State 11.2 · Ohio State 57.6
leans Ball State +50.0
◆ Mid 1
Ohio State -49.5 -106LowVig
Ball State +50.5 -110DraftKings
Kent State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 99%
Model
South Carolina -35.5 · mkt South Carolina ~-34.5
proj Kent State 12.3 · South Carolina 47.7
leans South Carolina -34.5
◆ Mid 0
South Carolina -34.5 -110DraftKings
Kent State +34.5 -110DraftKings
San José State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 63%
Model
Eastern Michigan -4.7 · mkt Eastern Michigan ~-4.0
proj San José State 24.3 · Eastern Michigan 29.0
leans Eastern Michigan -4.0
◆ Mid 1
Eastern Michigan -3.5 -108DraftKings
San José State +4.5 -106LowVig
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.