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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 9 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · Mid-American · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–357%
ATS vs close
2–529%
Model margin MAE
14.5
Market margin MAE
11.2
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Akron @ BuffaloFinal 24–16
Model
pred Buffalo 16.5 · actual Akron 8
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.5 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
Massachusetts @ Central MichiganFinal 13–38
Model
pred Central Michigan 12.0 · actual Central Michigan 25
winner Central Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ Northern IllinoisFinal 7–21
Model
pred Northern Illinois 10.4 · actual Northern Illinois 14
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH)Final 17–26
Model
pred Miami (OH) 1.1 · actual Miami (OH) 9
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Washington StateFinal 7–28
Model
pred Toledo 11.6 · actual Washington State 21
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.6 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Ohio @ Eastern MichiganFinal 28–21
Model
pred Ohio 11.8 · actual Ohio 7
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +12.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Bowling Green @ Kent StateFinal 21–24
Model
pred Bowling Green 11.9 · actual Kent State 3
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.