CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 8 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
4–267%
Model margin MAE
11.7
Market margin MAE
12.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ ToledoFinal 10–45
Model
pred Toledo 32.2 · actual Toledo 35
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ OhioFinal 21–48
Model
pred Ohio 11.9 · actual Ohio 27
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ Bowling GreenFinal 27–6
Model
pred Bowling Green 10.6 · actual Central Michigan 21
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.6 · mkt 24.0 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH)Final 30–44
Model
pred Miami (OH) 10.2 · actual Miami (OH) 14
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ Ball StateFinal 28–42
Model
pred Ball State 1.5 · actual Ball State 14
winner Ball State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.5 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Buffalo @ MassachusettsFinal 28–21
Model
pred Buffalo 11.3 · actual Buffalo 7
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 9.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.