CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 7 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Mid-American · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–340%
ATS vs close
2–340%
Model margin MAE
19.6
Market margin MAE
18.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Ball State @ Western MichiganFinal 0–42
Model
pred Western Michigan 15.3 · actual Western Michigan 42
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.7 · mkt 32.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ Eastern MichiganFinal 10–16
Model
pred Northern Illinois 2.6 · actual Eastern Michigan 6
winner Northern Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Massachusetts @ Kent StateFinal 6–42
Model
pred Massachusetts 8.3 · actual Kent State 36
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 44.3 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Bowling GreenFinal 23–28
Model
pred Toledo 12.7 · actual Bowling Green 5
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.7 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ AkronFinal 20–7
Model
pred Miami (OH) 13.7 · actual Miami (OH) 13
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 1.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.