CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 6 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
10.2
Market margin MAE
9.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ OklahomaFinal 0–44
Model
pred Oklahoma 47.4 · actual Oklahoma 44
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -46.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ BuffaloFinal 30–31
Model
pred Buffalo 10.1 · actual Buffalo 1
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ Northern IllinoisFinal 25–14
Model
pred Northern Illinois 4.1 · actual Miami (OH) 11
winner Northern Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ AkronFinal 22–28
Model
pred Central Michigan 2.0 · actual Akron 6
winner Central Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 13.0 · closer
Western Michigan @ MassachusettsFinal 21–3
Model
pred Western Michigan 13.8 · actual Western Michigan 18
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Ohio @ Ball StateFinal 14–20
Model
pred Ohio 15.4 · actual Ball State 6
winner Ohio ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.4 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.