CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 4 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 4 backtest · Mid-American · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–363%
ATS vs close
3–538%
Model margin MAE
10.8
Market margin MAE
8.0
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ Florida StateFinal 10–66
Model
pred Florida State 34.0 · actual Florida State 56
winner Florida State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +45.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
Ball State @ UConnFinal 25–31
Model
pred UConn 21.4 · actual UConn 6
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ LouisvilleFinal 17–40
Model
pred Louisville 21.0 · actual Louisville 23
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ Mississippi StateFinal 10–38
Model
pred Mississippi State 11.7 · actual Mississippi State 28
winner Mississippi State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Troy @ BuffaloFinal 21–17
Model
pred Buffalo 9.3 · actual Troy 4
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
UNLV @ Miami (OH)Final 41–38
Model
pred UNLV 3.8 · actual UNLV 3
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Louisiana @ Eastern MichiganFinal 31–34
Model
pred Louisiana 4.7 · actual Eastern Michigan 3
winner Louisiana ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Western MichiganFinal 13–14
Model
pred Toledo 8.3 · actual Western Michigan 1
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 14.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.