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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 3 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Mid-American · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–188%
ATS vs close
5–363%
Model margin MAE
14.4
Market margin MAE
12.0
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ IowaFinal 7–47
Model
pred Iowa 36.5 · actual Iowa 40
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -35.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ MichiganFinal 3–63
Model
pred Michigan 29.1 · actual Michigan 60
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 30.9 · mkt 32.5 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ KentuckyFinal 23–48
Model
pred Kentucky 23.8 · actual Kentucky 25
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Ohio @ Ohio StateFinal 9–37
Model
pred Ohio State 23.8 · actual Ohio State 28
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ UABFinal 28–31
Model
pred UAB 21.5 · actual UAB 3
winner UAB ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ IllinoisFinal 0–38
Model
pred Illinois 18.9 · actual Illinois 38
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Bowling GreenFinal 13–23
Model
pred Liberty 5.3 · actual Bowling Green 10
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Buffalo @ Kent StateFinal 31–28
Model
pred Buffalo 25.5 · actual Buffalo 3
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo -24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.