CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 2 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Mid-American · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–190%
ATS vs close
6–3 · 1P67%
Model margin MAE
12.1
Market margin MAE
10.7
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ Texas TechFinal 14–62
Model
pred Texas Tech 40.3 · actual Texas Tech 48
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +48.0Push
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Ball State @ AuburnFinal 3–42
Model
pred Auburn 31.3 · actual Auburn 39
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +42.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 3.8 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ PittsburghFinal 17–45
Model
pred Pittsburgh 25.6 · actual Pittsburgh 28
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.4 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Akron @ NebraskaFinal 0–68
Model
pred Nebraska 25.1 · actual Nebraska 68
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +33.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 42.9 · mkt 34.2 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ RutgersFinal 17–45
Model
pred Rutgers 15.2 · actual Rutgers 28
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ CincinnatiFinal 20–34
Model
pred Cincinnati 10.6 · actual Cincinnati 14
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 8.0 · closer
North Texas @ Western MichiganFinal 33–30
Model
pred Western Michigan 8.8 · actual North Texas 3
winner Western Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +12.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 9.3 · mkt closer
West Virginia @ OhioFinal 10–17
Model
pred Ohio 4.9 · actual Ohio 7
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ MarylandFinal 9–20
Model
pred Maryland 2.9 · actual Maryland 11
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +16.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
Western Kentucky @ ToledoFinal 21–45
Model
pred Toledo 2.0 · actual Toledo 24
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +8.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.