CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 15 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
Week 15 backtest · Mid-American · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
1–0100%
Model margin MAE
4.6
Market margin MAE
7.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Miami (OH) @ Western MichiganFinal 13–23
Model
pred Western Michigan 5.4 · actual Western Michigan 10
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 7.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.