CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 14 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
3–2 · 1P60%
Model margin MAE
9.3
Market margin MAE
6.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Ball State @ Miami (OH)Final 24–45
Model
pred Miami (OH) 21.9 · actual Miami (OH) 21
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Kent State @ Northern IllinoisFinal 35–31
Model
pred Northern Illinois 15.4 · actual Kent State 4
winner Northern Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois -5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Eastern MichiganFinal 31–21
Model
pred Western Michigan 1.0 · actual Western Michigan 10
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +10.0Push
margin err: model 9.0 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Ohio @ BuffaloFinal 31–26
Model
pred Ohio 5.3 · actual Ohio 5
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Bowling Green @ MassachusettsFinal 45–14
Model
pred Bowling Green 7.0 · actual Bowling Green 31
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.0 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Central MichiganFinal 21–3
Model
pred Toledo 16.0 · actual Toledo 18
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 6.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.