CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 13 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 13 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
8.0
Market margin MAE
6.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ OhioFinal 14–42
Model
pred Ohio 26.2 · actual Ohio 28
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +33.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Ball State @ ToledoFinal 9–38
Model
pred Toledo 24.2 · actual Toledo 29
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +29.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ Bowling GreenFinal 19–16
Model
pred Bowling Green 5.7 · actual Akron 3
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ BuffaloFinal 37–20
Model
pred Buffalo 0.2 · actual Miami (OH) 17
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Northern IllinoisFinal 35–19
Model
pred Western Michigan 3.5 · actual Western Michigan 16
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.5 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ Kent StateFinal 28–16
Model
pred Central Michigan 14.7 · actual Central Michigan 12
winner Central Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.