CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 12 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
1–517%
Model margin MAE
18.9
Market margin MAE
15.7
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ AkronFinal 42–35
Model
pred Akron 13.6 · actual Kent State 7
winner Akron ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Akron -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Ohio @ Western MichiganFinal 13–17
Model
pred Western Michigan 4.2 · actual Western Michigan 4
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.2 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ Ball StateFinal 24–9
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 1.8 · actual Eastern Michigan 15
winner Eastern Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.2 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Miami (OH)Final 24–3
Model
pred Toledo 2.8 · actual Toledo 21
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ MassachusettsFinal 45–3
Model
pred Northern Illinois 7.7 · actual Northern Illinois 42
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.3 · mkt 32.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ Central MichiganFinal 19–38
Model
pred Buffalo 8.0 · actual Central Michigan 19
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.0 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.